President Moon Jae-in talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un during their first inter-Korean summit at the truce village of Panmunjeom, April 27, 2018. / Korea Times file

By Kang Seung-woo

President Moon Jae-in recently shook up his national security team in a bid to double down on his inter-Korean peace initiative, but the ambitious reshuffle may fall short of his expectations, with few gambits to curry favor with North Korea, according to Pyongyang watchers.

Earlier this month, Moon reshaped the team that is filled with so-called pro-North Korea figures such as National Intelligence Service (NIS) director nominee Park Jie-won, a key figure in arranging the first inter-Korean summit in 2000, and former presidential chief of staff Im Jong-seok who has called for independent yet aggressive actions to improve stalled inter-Korean relations.

In addition, Suh Hoon, a former NIS chief who contributed to inter-Korean summits between Moon and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, has taken over the top National Security Office job, while Lee In-young, a long-time advocate of engagement with the North, has been nominated for unification minister.

"By filling out the national security lineup with those who have experience reaching out to the North and call for aggressive engagement with the country, the South Korean government is seeking to regain confidence from the Kim regime and revive momentum for dialogue," said Kim Jung, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies.

From left are Park Jie-won, Suh Hoon and Lee In-young / Korea Times file

"However, the North is not likely to immediately respond to the South's engagement efforts given that the South's national security team was not responsible for the current frayed inter-Korean relations."

Park Won-gon, a professor of international politics at Handong Global University, echoed Kim's view.

"The inter-Korean ties have been aggravated by not the South Korean government's poor policy but the North's strategy that pressures the South so it can win something," he said.

"No matter what forward-looking approach the South takes, it is not likely that the North will return to talks."

Park also said structural limitations will also prevent the team from aggressively pursuing new initiatives toward the North.

"As former Unification Minister Kim Yeon-chul said, there are multilayered sanctions imposed on the North, so even if Lee takes office, it will not be easy to push ahead with the engagement policy at his disposal," Park said.

"The North wants to immediately resume the Gaeseong Industrial Complex or Mount Geumgang tourism, but it would not be easy even for the new security team to do so."

Also, timing is not on the new national security team's side as the North is anticipated to adopt a wait-and-see attitude until the Nov. 3 U.S. presidential election, which would leave less room for the team to maneuver.

"The North believes inter-Korean relations are subordinate to its ties with the United States, so it is highly likely to wait until the U.S. election. In other words, the new national security team has fewer options to create dialogue momentum with the North," Park said.

Im Jong-seok, left, and Chung Eui-yong / Korea Times file

In addition, how actively the security team pursues Moon's Korean Peninsula peace process depends on who wins the election.

"If President Trump is re-elected, he is expected to continue his top-down style of diplomacy, which will give more room for the security aides to make engagement efforts, but a Joe Biden presidency is likely to restrict their roles," Kim Jung said.

Traditionally, the U.S. Democratic Party has taken issue with the North's human rights situation ― a move the totalitarian state denounces as one of hostile actions by the U.S. against the North. In addition, while condemning Trump's summits with the North Korean leader, Biden said in January that he would not meet with the North Korean dictator without preconditions.

Amid the cross-border relations heading toward their lowest ebb under the Moon administration, there was widespread consensus that the President should recruit politicians for his national security team as they were believed to be able to make and push ahead with bold decisions in North Korea policy. The unification minister nominee is an active four-term lawmaker and the nominee for director of intelligence is a veteran politician, although he failed to win his fifth parliamentary term in the general election in April.

However, at the same time, the reshuffle is also raising concerns that they may force a diplomatic breakthrough at all costs, including hurting the relations between the South and the U.S.

In fact, the unification minister nominee hinted at revamping the joint working group if inaugurated. The group is a forum to coordinate issues regarding North Korea, but it is under fire for allegedly hindering Moon's policy toward the North.

"It is a concern that they may push ahead with the engagement policy without fully considering the situation. If so, the bilateral relations between the South and the U.S. may deteriorate," Park said.

"I think the South Korean government wants such a drive, while there are growing calls from the ruling party to use political maneuvers for inter-Korean reconciliation tilting away from the U.S. policy."

On Tuesday, a North Korean propaganda outlet expressed optimism about the South's new national security squad, citing a pro-unification media outlet in the South saying that high hopes are pinned on the new team.

"We have great expectations for Lee In-young and Im Jong-seok in the recent shakeup," Uriminzokkiri quoted Jaju Sibo as saying.

It also cited another article calling on the South to halt combined exercises with the U.S. and get rid of the working group.

Late last month, President Moon voiced an intention to mediate between the North and the U.S. ― although the North ruled out the possibility of holding another summit with the U.S. this year.

Believing that North Korea is still waiting for a certain offer from the U.S., Cho Seong-ryoul, a senior advisor of the Institute for National Security Strategy, said the new national security team needs to explore ideas to facilitate the meeting between the two countries whose ties have been icy since the collapse of the Hanoi summit in February 2019 ― although it is a daunting task.

"Above all, uncertainties loom in the North over how the result of the U.S. presidential election will affect its policy toward the country, so it will be the South Korean government's role to clear up uncertainties," Cho said.

Kim Jung said what the new national security team can do is prevent the current situation from getting worse ahead of the election.

"At this point, however, the Moon administration cannot take initiative as the North has not responded to the South's offers for inter-Korean projects," he said.