El Niño has arrived in 2019. So far, it's pretty weak. That doesn't mean it will stay that way.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced Thursday that this natural climate phenomenon -- which is triggered by warmer temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and can significantly affect weather in the U.S. -- will likely persist through the spring. But what happens next is still unclear.
"We don’t have a good handle on where this goes the rest of the year," Mike Halpert, the deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, said in an interview. "It becomes kind of a tossup after spring."
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El Niño events happen when the warmer temperatures on the surface of the Pacific Ocean pass heat to the atmosphere, resulting in warmer air that naturally holds more moisture. "This allows more moisture to come to the U.S.," Jeff Weber, a meteorologist with the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, said in an interview.
Typically, this means above-average rain and snow across the southern regions of the United States, especially California. Conversely, the northern U.S. often sees less precipitation and warmer-than-average temperatures.
"That is what we expect in the next spring months," said Weber.
SEE ALSO:The Green New Deal: Historians weigh in on the immense scale required to pull it offAlready, the West Coast has been pummeled by rain and snow events this winter, meaning up to 15 feet of snow in the Sierra Nevada Mountains and 8 inches of rain in some California areas. El Niño conditions may have contributed to these big precipitation events, noted Weber. Though, NOAA found that another climate phenomenon, the Madden Julian Oscillation, has also contributed to the wet season in some places.
On Thursday, the West Coast got slammed by a storm as a "conveyor belt" of moisture swamped the Golden State.
Big El Niño events -- in which the ocean warms significantly more than this year -- have planetary-wide consequences. Good examples are the big El Niño events of 2016-2017 and 1998-1999.
"Those have a big footprint on global annual temperatures," noted Halpert.
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Although such a mighty El Niño event isn't in the cards this year, when it does happen, the vast Pacific Ocean contributes enormous amounts of heat to Earth's atmosphere.
"That adds to the overall heat content of the planet, so to speak," said Weber.
El Niño events also have big implications for the hurricane season in the U.S. Specifically, higher atmospheric winds (known as the jet stream) kick up over the southern U.S. during El Niño years, which can doom hurricanes.
"These winds tear apart hurricanes," said Weber.
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As of now, however, there's still scant evidence that this weaker El Niño will last beyond spring. Hurricane seasons -- which have been historically devastating in recent years -- begin in early June.
NOAA will keep watch over how this El Niño develops over the coming months. For now, temperatures in the Pacific are a bit warmer than average (about 1 degree Fahrenheit or 0.5 degrees Celsius), but not quite enough to portend big changes -- yet.
"I wouldn't necessarily say this event has a big impact unless the [El Niño] event really takes off," said Halpert.
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